AI Leads to Fewer Business Trips and Increased Stakes

The Shrinking Landscape of Business Travel: Insights for CFOs

The Transformative Role of AI

The advent of artificial intelligence (AI) signals a seismic shift in how businesses function, particularly in the realm of travel. While the prospect of smarter, more efficient travel management may seem appealing, the reality is that AI is poised to shrink the demand for business travel. As pointed out by consultant Scott Gillespie, this evolution presents both challenges and opportunities for Chief Financial Officers (CFOs) navigating the complexities of corporate budgets in this new landscape.

AI’s Bright Spots in Business Travel

A closer look at AI’s role reveals promising applications in business travel. From streamlining planning processes to enhancing personalization, AI has the potential to make travel easier and more intuitive. Numerous enhancements—like user-friendly chatbots, seamless bookings, no-touch payments, and automated expense reporting—all contribute to a more pleasant travel experience. However, Gillespie argues that these incremental improvements may not provide the strategic value needed to justify ongoing business travel expenses.

The Darker Picture: Task and Job Compression

As we delve deeper into AI’s implications, the outlook shifts. Two primary factors contribute to this evolving landscape: task compression and job compression.

Task Compression

AI’s capability to automate a range of white-collar tasks could redefine the necessity for in-person meetings. Tasks that previously required multiple meetings—like data gathering, brainstorming, and planning—can now often be accomplished with a single digital interaction. This shift means that fewer justifiable trips are likely, leading to diminished transaction volumes for travel suppliers.

Job Compression

The demographic trends in the U.S. workforce underline the urgency of these changes. Forecasts predict an 8% shrinkage of the workforce by 2050 under a no-immigration scenario. As companies strive to maintain productivity with a smaller workforce, the role of AI in automating tasks becomes even more critical. McKinsey’s analysis indicates that generative AI could potentially replace 60% to 70% of white-collar jobs, reshaping the job market significantly. With many non-essential trips undertaken by red-collar workers, a reduction in this pool translates directly to decreased travel demands.

Navigating the CFO’s Dilemma

In light of AI’s potential to curtail business trips, CFOs face a significant dilemma. On one hand, the instinctive reaction might be to slash travel budgets in response to the compression of travel needs. On the other, long-term strategic thinkers recognize that cutting budgets may overlook the real opportunity: can the fewer trips still deliver greater value?

Optimizing Travel Budgets: The MVA Metric

To tackle this dilemma, Gillespie proposes a fresh approach centered around the “marginal value-add” (MVA) metric. This approach encourages CFOs to evaluate travel opportunities based on their potential return rather than simply their cost.

Understanding MVA

The MVA of a trip can be calculated by subtracting the trip’s expected cost from its “red line” cost limit—essentially, the maximum amount the company is willing to pay for that trip. Trips that exhibit an MVA of less than $1,000 could be flagged as low-value, prompting reassessment.

As AI continues to evolve, its capability to assess the necessity of meetings will become increasingly sophisticated. However, organizations don’t have to wait; travel budgets can be optimized today.

Implementation: Strategies for Effective Travel Management

Gillespie suggests a methodical approach for CFOs—redesign travel policies to ensure every approved trip maximizes the budget’s impact. Applying the MVA metric enables companies to distinguish between low-value and high-value trips effectively.

Radical Efficiency

Gillespie’s early findings with MVA optimization modeling are promising, indicating that organizations could potentially reduce travel budgets by one-third, while simultaneously cutting emissions in half and eliminating three-quarters of low-value trips. More importantly, this approach has shown to slightly enhance the overall MVA.

Moving Forward: The Strategic CFO

While some CFOs may be tempted to pocket savings from optimized travel budgets, those with a forward-thinking mindset will see the value in strategically reinvesting these funds. A well-managed travel budget has the potential to foster greater business outcomes by facilitating high-value interactions that emphasize quality over quantity.

A Race to Optimize

The conversation surrounding AI’s impact on business travel is far from trivial; it poses critical questions for CFOs and travel managers alike. Will organizations allow budget cuts to happen serendipitously, or will they employ a strategic approach to retain high-value, carbon-efficient trips? The path forward is clear: the race to optimize business travel budgets begins now.