Ethereum Price May Surge 56% Following Fusaka Upgrade

Ethereum’s price has surged over 13% since December 1, buoyed by a broader recovery in the cryptocurrency market and rising optimism surrounding today’s Fusaka upgrade. This upgrade will enhance the network’s transaction processing efficiency. While ETH remains down more than 17% over the past month, this recent rebound and several technical indicators resemble patterns observed just before the Pectra upgrade in May 2025, which led to an impressive 56% rally over the span of a week.

The pivotal question now is: can the Fusaka upgrade act as a similar catalyst?

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Conditions Look Similar to Pectra — And Big Buyers Are Returning

During the Pectra phase from May 6 to 13, Ethereum witnessed a remarkable surge of 56%, characterized by standard bullish divergence. This occurs when the price hits a lower low while the Relative Strength Index (RSI), a measure ranging from 0 to 100 that gauges momentum, forms a higher low. Such a scenario often indicates that sellers are losing control, even if the chart might still appear weak—a classic sign of an impending trend reversal.

P.S.: The Pectra upgrade was launched on May 7, 2025.

We are observing a similar setup today. Between November 4 and December 1, ETH recorded a lower low, while the RSI produced a higher low. This mirrors the structure present before the Pectra movement, raising hopes among market watchers.

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Moreover, large holders are showing signs of early accumulation. The number of Ethereum addresses with holdings of at least $1 million has increased from 13,322 to 13,945, marking a 4.68% rise. This translates to at least $623 million in new capital entering the network’s top-tier wallets. Historically, when big buyers flock to the asset ahead of a major technical upgrade, it bodes well for future price movements.

These factors—a divergence pattern along with significant inflows from large wallets—construct a compelling case that the Fusaka upgrade could serve as a catalyst, provided that a crucial breakout level is successfully breached.

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One Cost-Basis Cluster and One Ethereum Price Level Decide Everything

For ETH to extend its gains in a Pectra-type fashion, it must overcome a single critical supply wall. According to Glassnode’s Cost Basis Distribution, the most substantial near-term supply cluster is situated between $3,154 and $3,179, where approximately 2.76 million ETH is concentrated. This coincides neatly with a key resistance level identified on the chart at $3,166.

A decisive daily close above $3,166 could lead to the following:

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• Confirmation that buyers have substantially absorbed the largest supply zone
• Opening the path for a move toward $3,653

If momentum aligns with the pre-Pectra scenario, a potential 56% increase from December’s lows could target around $4,262, which also aligns with a significant historical ceiling.

Conversely, if ETH’s price structure falls below $2,996, it would signal a weakening trend. In such a scenario, support levels at $2,873 should be closely monitored, with $2,618 signifying a deeper support zone in case of increased selling pressure.