High Stakes at the APEC Summit
The anticipation surrounding the upcoming APEC Summit in South Korea on October 31 is palpable, particularly as U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping prepare for a high-stakes meeting. Beyond the expected handshakes and pleasantries, market participants, especially crypto traders, are closely monitoring the implications for assets like Bitcoin.
For months, the relationship between the United States and China has been marked by escalating tensions, characterized by a series of retaliatory trade measures. As the world’s two largest economies engage in this crucial diplomatic encounter, the sentiment across global risk assets is increasingly intertwined with U.S.–China relations. For Bitcoin, recently trading in the $108,000 to $110,000 range amid market volatility, this meeting could serve as a pivotal moment for traders, shaping outlooks for the remainder of Q4 2025.
The Run-Up to the First Meeting After the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election
The days leading up to the APEC Summit have seen notable volatility. On October 9, Beijing implemented sweeping export controls on rare-earth elements, effectively tightening its grip on materials essential for technology and advanced manufacturing. The following day, Trump retaliated by threatening a staggering 100% tariff increase on all Chinese imports, an aggressive move that sent markets into a tailspin before he ultimately signaled a willingness to meet with Xi.
This series of developments culminated in one of the worst trading sessions of 2025, with Bitcoin witnessing its largest single-day liquidation event—approximately $18 to $20 billion—causing it to plummet from highs of nearly $126,000 to around $103,000. Other major cryptocurrencies like Ethereum (ETH) and Solana (SOL) also faced double-digit losses during this tumultuous phase.
However, signs of de-escalation began to surface between October 16 and 20. Trump acknowledged that the aggressive tariffs were “not sustainable,” confirmed the Xi meeting, and even expressed praise for Xi’s leadership while pursuing a critical minerals deal with Australia. Following the confirmation of this high-level meeting, Bitcoin experienced a slight rebound, climbing to approximately $110,459 to $111,000, with significant whale traders taking positions that indicated expectations of further volatility.
Scenario 1: Trade De-escalation Sparks Risk-On Rally
Should the APEC meeting yield positive results—perhaps through visible commitments to tariff rollbacks or reinvigorated trade negotiations—the ramifications for global markets could be profound. A climate of renewed risk appetite might emerge, buoying not only equities but also Bitcoin. Speculation about potential rate cuts by the Federal Reserve could further bolster this scenario, leading to increased investor confidence and activity.
Historical context supports this potential rally; past U.S.–China diplomatic improvements have typically resulted in significant increases in both traditional and digital asset markets. For instance, during the last trade dialogue in May 2025, Bitcoin rose from around $98,000 to a peak of $105,720 following an agreement on a 90-day suspension of tariffs. Such cooperative gestures from both nations could catalyze enthusiasm and push BTC to re-test previous highs if liquidity remains favorable.
Scenario 2: Trade War Escalation Triggers Market Shock
Conversely, if the APEC meeting devolves into confrontation or if Trump reinstates aggressive tariffs, market reactions may be swift and severe. Despite Bitcoin being commonly referred to as “digital gold” or a safe haven, its behavior has been consistently aligned with risk assets. Heightened geopolitical tensions could lead to dollar appreciation, dampening risk sentiment and prompting leveraged traders to exit positions.
In this scenario, Bitcoin could revisit early-October lows near $103,000 to $105,000, while alternative cryptocurrencies might experience even sharper declines. Analysts express concerns that intensified tariffs or export restrictions could spark further liquidation events, creating a ripple effect across cryptocurrency derivatives and markets.
Scenario 3: No Resolution, Lingering Volatility
A third possibility is one of indecision and continued volatility—an outcome where both parties engage in polite dialogue but offer no substantive policy changes. In the aftermath, crypto markets could see temporary relief rallies but ultimately settle into choppy, range-bound trading patterns. This uncertainty could maintain elevated volatility levels while also suppressing conviction among larger institutional traders.
In this scenario, analysts predict Bitcoin might oscillate between $105,000 and $115,000, as traders wait for clearer signals regarding U.S.-China trade policy or broader macroeconomic indicators. The market may find itself in a delicate balance, reacting to news and speculation without a definitive direction.
What to Watch Next
- Tariff clock: Look for any forward-looking language that could suspend the impending November 1 tariff trigger.
- Rare earth carve-outs: Watch for indications on supply-chain exemptions or licenses to alleviate pressure on the semiconductor and defense sectors.
- Tone and guidance: Market participants should pay close attention to post-meeting remarks from both leaders, the follow-through on U.S.-Australia mineral agreements, and mentions of future bilateral discussions.
- Flows and leverage: Monitor whale positioning for opportunistic moves. Traders should keep an eye on perpetual funding rates, open interest, and basis strategies for signs of one-sided risk in crypto markets.
Important Information: This is informational content sponsored by Crypto.com and should not be considered investment advice. Trading cryptocurrencies carries its own risks, including significant price volatility and market fluctuations. Always consider your risk appetite before engaging in cryptocurrency trading.
